The War in Afghanistan Wasn’t Worth It—We Have the Numbers
And they’re not good: 241,000 dead, 2.5 million displaced, $2.4 trillion spent (and counting), and a more powerful Taliban than ever before.
After 20 years of war and occupation, President Biden made the difficult decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan. Within 10 days, though, Taliban forces seized the country with little opposition from the Afghan army, leaving many to wonder what the point of the war was. Now that the war is over, the numbers don’t lie: the last 20 years have not been worth it.
A Larger and Better Funded Taliban
After the attacks on September 11th 2001, the US invaded Afghanistan to topple the Taliban because they had harbored Al Qaeda, who had orchestrated and carried out the attacks. However, the Taliban has only grown more powerful.
Before the invasion, they had an estimated 45,000 members, and within a few years, their numbers sank to 11,000. However, according to estimates released by President Biden on July 8th 2021, their numbers had risen to 75,000.
Furthermore, the Taliban now produces more opium, their greatest source of income, than before. Before the US invasion, they produced around 75,000 hectares. When the US invaded, opium production fell sharply, but since then it has risen steadily. According to the United Nations Office On Drugs and Crime, the Taliban produced 328,000 hectares in 2017; 263,000 in 2018; 163,000 in 2019; and 224,000 in 2020. The Special Inspector General For Afghanistan Reconstruction estimated that “in 2014, the value added by traffickers through the processing of Afghan opium into morphine and heroin and the export of processed and unprocessed opiates was $1.81 billion.”
Therefore, the Taliban somehow has only gotten stronger during the US occupation.
Counting the Dead
According to an analysis from Brown University’s Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs, the total dead from direct conflict is 241,000. This is broken down into 9 categories:
- National and Military Police: 69,000 in Afghanistan; 9314 in Pakistan
- Opposition Fighters: 52,000 in Afghanistan; 33,000 in Pakistan
- Civilians: 47,000 in Afghanistan; 24,000 in Pakistan
- US Contractors: 3,846 in Afghanistan; 90 in Pakistan
- US Military: 2442 in Afghanistan
- Allied Troops: 1144 in Afghanistan
- Humanitarian Aid Workers: 444 in Afghanistan; 105 in Pakistan
- Media Members: 72 in Afghanistan; 105 in Pakistan
- US Department of Defense Civilians; 6 in Afghanistan
While this is a fairly thorough analysis, the actual numbers are likely much higher. To begin with, many of these figures are estimates. For example, nice round numbers like 69,000 are rough guesses based on numerous sources, such as press releases, interviews, news articles, etc., none of which include the many deaths among the local population that were impossible to count and verify. Furthermore, according to the creators of the study, “These figures do not include deaths caused by disease, loss of access to food, water, infrastructure, and/or other indirect consequences of the war.”
So the actual numbers are likely far greater than the 241,000 estimate.
Millions of Refugees and Internally Displaced
It’s estimated that some 2.5 million Afghanis fled the country after 2001, many finding refuge in neighboring countries. This makes them the second largest refugee population in the world, after Syrians. Furthermore, the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs found that
“More than 4.1 million IDPs (internally displaced persons) who have been displaced since 2012 remain in urban and rural informal settlements where they often live in sub-standard shelters characterised by lack of privacy and dignity; overcrowding; and poor ventilation.” Therefore, millions of people have had their quality of life reduced to near zero, leaving them little prospects for the present and the future.
Cost of War
As of this writing, the total cost of the war in Afghanistan is $2.4 trillion (about $300 million per day). This number continues to go up rapidly because the war was largely funded through issuing debt, whose interest needs to be paid. By 2030, another $2.1 trillion could be added. By 2050, “the interest alone is forecast to top $6.5 trillion.” The total expenditures are broken down into 5 categories:
- Defense Department Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) Budget: $1.05 trillion.
- Interest on War Borrowing: $532 billion.
- Defense Department War Related Increase: $433 billion.
- Veterans Care Increase: $233 billion.
- State Department OCO budget: $60 billion.
The bulk of the funds went to the OCO, which is a relatively new creation. It’s a separate fund that gets refilled through special grants and is subject to very little oversight with some critics saying “it’s nothing more than a slush fund for more defense spending.” President Biden has suggested getting rid of it and returning the Pentagon and the State Department’s back under their usual umbrellas. Furthermore, a lot of this money was wasted. $80 billion was spent training the Afghan army, which seemingly was pointless. Nearly $8 billion was spent on buildings and vehicles, but a report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction found that “just $1.2 billion of the $7.8 billion went to pay for buildings and vehicles that were used as intended.” Where did the other $6.6 billion go, and is this indicative of widespread fraud and corruption?
Were There Any Positives?
Of course. The obvious first answer is that the war in Afghanistan resulted in the death of Osama Bin Laden, but there are also a handful of uplifting statistics (from Our World in Data):
- Life expectancy rose from 56 to 64 years.
- The rate of child marriage dropped 17%.
- Maternal mortality rates were cut in half.
- Women made up 27% of the lower house of parliament.
- Unemployment went from nearly 12% to 9%.
Unfortunately, now that the Taliban is in control again, these numbers are likely to return to their pre-2001 levels. Therefore, it seems the 20 year war in Afghanistan was mostly pointless.
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